Ante Post – Championship Relegation
Recommended Bets
Cardiff to be relegated – 5.5 with Betvictor
Derby to be relegated – 6.0 with Bet365
Stake – 1.25 unit each
There are two sides that I want to back for relegation in the Championship. I am going to avoid the two favorites for relegation in Plymouth and Oxford and take Derby at 6.0 and Cardiff at 5.5. With Ipswich being promoted straight to the Premier League after promotion to the Championship there are some fans who think their side is capable to replicating that. This just adds more pressure to the sides and managers.
Last season both newly promoted Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday struggled, although both just did enough to survive. Argle stayed up by a single point, whilst the Owls survived by three, but they needed to win their last three games to do so.
Whilst we shouldn’t place too much on preseason results, Derby have been poor. They lost 4-2 to Barnsley and 2-1 against Shrewsbury and there will be pressure on manager Paul Warne to deliver for Derby this season with fans expecting a comfortable midtable finish as a minimum, I am just sure he has the ability to do so. His record in the Championship record with Rotherham was three relegations all immediately in the season after promotion. The step up to the Championship is tough and at 6.0 this looks a good bet.
Cardiff City finished 12th last season in the Championship, but my data has them 20th on xPTS finishing just 0.43 expected points ahead of relegated Huddersfield. The underlying data has them 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio and for shots in the box ratio. Over the season they averaged just 0.82 xG. Last season they ended with 62 points, but they took 30 points in the opening 20 games and from them on it was tough going with just 1.23 points per game. Calum Chambers and Anwar El Ghazi gives them some experience, but neither player looks like they will be able to turn the tide.
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