Premier League Ante Post treble

Using the Bet365 “points won” selection we can combined the following:

• Arsenal over 83 points
• Everton over 43 points
• Newcastle over 65 points

Stake – 1.5 units

This looks like a good way to get these sides on board.

Arsenal over the last two seasons have won 89 and 84 points and have further strengthened their squad with the purchase of Riccardo Calafiori for a fee in excess of £40m and look likely to add Mikel Merino from Real Sociedad. In pre-season manager Mikel Arteta has full of praise for the returning Jesus, who spent most of last season injured. Jesus is said to have returned to training in “top condition”. I actually had Arsenal as the best team in the Premier League last season topping the table on xPTS and in the ratios for non-penalty xG, shots in the box and shots on target in the box. A similar performance this season should again put them close and with the additions to the squad may even claim a long-awaited title.

Everton last season secured 13 wins and nine draws to claim 48 points (before losing points due to FFP). Their xPTS was 49.34 so their return was justified. There appears to be no or little chance of a repeat of points deductions and therefore I am happy to back them to achieve 44 or more points. Manager Sean Dyche knows what is required to keep the side away from relegation and whilst they struggled for goals last term, defensively they were excellent with only Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal conceding fewer.  The Toffees only lost two more games than the likes of Man Utd, Newcastle and West Ham. If the likes of Iliman Ndiaye and Jesper Lindstrom can help with their attacking play, they should be able to achieve the points total required.

Newcastle ended last season with 60 points and xPTS of 60.01, but they had a tough season with injuries and suspensions.  Keeper Nick Pope only managed 15 starts, Sandro Tonali just 5 starts, Sven Botman 15 and Harvey Barnes just 7. On top of this they had Champions League football, which stretched the squad even further. Whilst Tonali won’t be back until September at the earliest, Botman is closing in on a return with the other players who are now all fit and should be ready to make an impact this season. In the 2022/23 season they collected 71 points and given the squad this season with Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, and Bruno Guimaraes and no European football, they should be able to achieve 66 or more points.