🏴 England Premier League
📅 Saturday 14th September
⚽️ Crystal Palace vs Leicester
Palace have not started the season that well with W0-D1-L2. They won the xG battle against Brentford but lost 2-1 and then they were unfortunate to lose to West Ham 2-0 as they narrowly lost on xG 1.08 vs 1.05.
Since Oliver Glasner was appointed, the Eagles have returned W7-D4-L5 with two of the five defeats coming this season. At Selhurst Park they have averaged two points a game with W5-D1-L2 with the only other defeat coming in a 4-2 reserve to Man City. They have been in fine goal scoring form at home with an average of 2.75 goals per game, finding the net at least twice in six of the eight games.
The Foxes may have escaped a points deduction due to PSR issues, but I am not sure that they will survive relegation back to the Championship in May. They were extremely fortunate to collect a point at home to Spurs on the opening weekend and then followed this up with a pair of 2-1 defeats to Fulham and Villa.
They have scored in each of their Premier League games this season but have averaged just 0.66 xG with only one side having fewer efforts at goal than the Foxes, whilst only four teams have conceded more shots on target in the division than Leicester. I have them 19th on xPTS and on non-penalty xG ratio.
Last season the three promoted sides won just six away games from a total of 57 fixtures, losing 39. It is difficult to see anything but a home win here.
Recommended Bet
Palace win & over 1.5 goals
📈 1.90 with Bet365
💷 1.5 unit stake
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