Premier League Relegation

Recommended Bet

Wolves to be relegated: 5.0 with BetVictor

Stake – 1.25 unit 

There isn’t much value in backing any of the three promoted sides to immediately return to the Championship with best prices of Leicester 1.5, Southampton at 2.4 and Ipswich at even money. The Saints price has tempted me but their recruitment so far has been positive and the majority of the side played in the Premier League two seasons ago.

Forest and Everton come next in the betting, but as the table below shows neither of these sides looked in real danger last season. (Excuse my data tables)

Given the underlying performances of both Everton and Forest plus their experienced managers, I think they will be fine. Forest were 6^th for non-penalty xGA last season with Everton 5^th. Its unlikely that Man Utd will struggle despite their poor underlying performances last season, which leaves Wolves in serious relegation troubles.

Wolves sat 17^th for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, with the 3^rd lowest xG in the Premier League last term. I had them 16^th for shots on target ratio and shots in the box. Only the three relegated sides and Everton scored fewer goals with just Burnley and Sheffield Utd having a lower non-penalty xG across the season with just 34.65. They are very reliant on Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang, who between them scored 24 of their 50 league goals. If either play is out for a period of time they may struggle for goals.

Defensively, Wolves registered the 3^rd highest number of blocked efforts with 506 and their defender Max Kilman had the 4^th most blocks of any player in the Premier League last term. Unfortunately, he has now been sold to West Ham. Keeper Jose Sa recorded one of the best save percentages, but they still had one of the highest xGA in the division. The loss of Kilman could be terminal.

Manager Gary O’Neil has performed miracles with keeping both Bournemouth and Wolves clear of relegation, but with the Premier League Profit and Sustainability Rules supposedly very tight for Wolves meaning they may not be able to replace Kilman and with other senior players also considering their futures, this might be the season they slip into the Championship.